Cuts to U.S. Foreign Aid Could Drive Millions of New TB Cases and Deaths, Finds New Study
16 September 2025
U.S. foreign aid cuts could result in over 10 million additional tuberculosis (TB) cases and 2.5 million more deaths in the next years, across 26 countries with high TB burden, found a study by Center for Modeling and Analysis, the U.S., and Stop TB Partnership, Switzerland published in PLOS Global Public Health.
The U.S.’s financial support has played a significant role in developing and running global health programs, particularly in combating diseases like HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis (TB).
In 2024 alone, U.S. contributions made up more than 55% of all external funds available for TB programs. The abrupt funding freeze and subsequent cuts in early 2025 led to many programs worldwide closing their doors.
Halting HIV treatment, malaria prevention, and TB care programs due to lack of money has jeopardized essential health care for millions and likely worsened the overall disease burden.
Funding cuts to USAID’s TB programs are causing major disruptions in critical areas such as diagnosis and treatment of both regular and drug-resistant TB, taking care of people with TB-HIV co-infection, and preventing new infections.
The funding withdrawal has also disrupted vital research aimed at developing new drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics. Overall, many efforts central to the Global Plan to End TB by 2030 have taken a hit.
The researchers examined the extent to which 26 high-burden countries—accounting for 80% of global TB cases—were dependent on U.S. funding for TB care and what would happen if that support were to disappear.
Using mathematical modeling, the researchers simulated the impact under three recovery scenarios: (a) minimal impact scenario, in which services recover within three months; (b) moderate impact scenario, in which services recover within one year; and (c) worst-case scenario, in which, if the funding gap is not addressed, service coverage remains at the reduced level reached during the 90-day disruption period.
The projections were made for an increase in TB cases and deaths between 2025 and 2030.
Even under minimal disruption, an additional 634,700 cases and nearly 100,000 deaths can be expected.
With moderate disruption, the toll could rise to 1.66 million new cases and 268,600 deaths. In the worst-case scenario (S3), the projections look catastrophic with over 10.6 million extra cases and 2.24 million deaths.
A sensitivity analysis revealed that only half of the funding cuts would affect TB services and yet it could lead to 884,000 additional deaths in the worst case.
The researchers note that while some nations might adapt to this changing landscape, the repercussions of these disruptions will have a lasting impact on vulnerable populations. They call for finding urgent alternative funding to sustain critical TB prevention and treatment efforts.
By Sanjukta Mondal
More information: Sandip Mandal et al, A deadly equation: The global toll of US TB funding cuts, PLOS Global Public Health (2025). DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0004899
Source: Medical Xpress
